Atiwa seat safe for NPP—Ephson

Pollster Ben Ephson says the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) should comfortably retain the Atiwa constituency seat in the Eastern Region due for a by-election on August 31.

The Electoral Commission will accept nominations on August 9 and 10 in readiness for the poll to replace the late Kwasi Annor Ankamah, NPP MP for the area who died in London on July 1 after a protracted illness.

According to Ben Ephson, also Editor of the Daily Dispatch newspaper who was speaking on Asempa FM’s Ekosii Sen programme, the constituency is one of about 180 seats that fit the tag of ‘safe seat’ in Ghanaian electoral contests, at least per recent election trends, between the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the NPP.

According to Ephson, the NPP parliamentary candidate in 2004 polled 25,468 ballots, representing 73 per cent while the NDC had 7,313 ballots or 21 percent. In 2008, the NPP candidate polled 26,423 or 76 percent while the NDC candidate polled 7,851, or 22.7 per cent in both cases registering a margin of about 18,000.

He said given the status of the seat as a ‘safe’ one for the NPP, its outcome cannot be used as a fair measure of the performance of the Mills administration, explaining that elections in swing constituencies such as Komenda-Edina-Eguafo-Abirem in the Central Region and Odododioodioo in the Greater Accra Region are best suited for measuring popularity.

If the NPP faces any real threat in the Atiwa constituency in the pending by-election, according to Ben Ephson, it would be that of apathy at its primary to elect a candidate to contest on its behalf given the rather acrimonious 2008 primary that led to the election of now late Kwasi Annor Ankamah.